New-vehicle sales in the US are projected to reach 1.25 million units in June 2025, a modest 2.5% year-over-year increase, according to J.D. Power. However, fewer selling days this June
(24 vs. 26 last year) mean adjusted sales are actually down 5.4%.
Retail sales are expected to hit 1.02 million, up 6.7% year-over-year, though down 1.5% without adjusting for selling days. The seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) is forecasted at 15 million units, slightly above last June’s 14.8 million.
Tariff Impact and Payback Effect
Sales momentum has slowed after a tariff-driven surge in March and April, when 173,000 extra vehicles were sold in anticipation of price hikes. That pull-ahead is now reversing, dampening June figures. Incentives have also dropped—from 6.1% of MSRP in January to 5% in June—making cars less appealing to price-sensitive buyers.
Despite this, transaction prices remain high. The average retail price in June is set to hit $46,233, up 3.1% from last year. Consumers are projected to spend nearly $45 billion on new cars, a 4.3% rise and the fourth-highest total ever for June.
Retail and Fleet Trends
Fleet sales are expected to fall 12.7% year-over-year to 231,081 units as manufacturers prioritize higher-margin retail buyers. Retail inventory has grown to 2.16 million units—up nearly 23% from 2024—leading to longer average time on dealer lots (49 days).
EVs Slide, Hybrids Surge
Hybrids are gaining traction, expected to capture a record 14.1% retail share in June—up 3.8 percentage points—while EVs fall to 8.7%, down 1.6 points. Hybrids are benefiting from expanded model options and consumer familiarity, with Japanese brands, especially Toyota, leading the charge.
Financial Snapshot
Average monthly payments are forecast at a record $747, with an average interest rate of 6.89%. Longer-term loans (84+ months) now make up 12% of financing, up from 9% a year ago. Used car prices are also climbing, now averaging $29,440.
Looking Ahead
Expect July sales comparisons to be skewed due to last year’s post-outage sales spike. Tariff uncertainty remains a key factor in pricing and incentives, though manufacturers appear cautious so far. Vehicle prices are expected to rise slowly despite cost pressures. Photo by Gilvan Cameino, Wikimedia commons.