June 23, 2019

How to Time Market Tops and Bottoms

On this first full weekend of Summer, we thought we would revisit our June 3, 2019 research post regarding a price pattern we love to trade – the Fibonacci Extension Bounce. This pattern sets up fairly often and the key to understanding this pattern and where these trades present real opportunity is in understanding the price dynamics behind these extensions. There are many instances where a Fibonacci price extension level will fail to promote a price bounce or rebound – and the price will just keep trending higher or lower past the extension level.

You can read our original research post here that clearly shows the bottom and our price targets.

Pay very close attention to the price levels and setups of the charts within that June 3, 2019 post. These setups are based on what we term a “100% Fibonacci Extension” from a previous trend reversal (peak or valley). The concept of this trading pattern is that the initial “impulse” price move sets up the first leg of a move. The retracement price move sets up the entry trigger for the second price leg – the next 100% price leg. The bottom, in this case, of the second 100% price leg sets up the “end of the move” and the potential for a price rotation in the opposite direction (likely resulting in a 38% to 61%+ retracement move).

In both instances of our June 3 calls, Crude Oil and the ES followed through exactly as we predicted.

This first chart of Crude Oil shows how price bottomed near $52 and has recently advanced to levels near $58 after reaching the 100% Fibonacci extension levels. As this move higher extends to levels near the ORANGE moving average line on this chart and/or beyond the $58 to $59 target level we originally drew on our June 3rd charts, we would consider the upside price move “completed” based on our expectations. Yes, these types of trend could extend even further beyond our expectations. But our objective, as skilled traders, is to target and profit from the highest probability objectives – which was the move from $52 to near current price levels.

Follow the MAGENTA lines on these charts to see the Fibonacci Extension Pattern Setup. They are not hard to see on the charts when your eyes are trained to identify them.




This ES Daily chart shows the incredible +230 point rally that took place after our June 3 research post and after the Fibonacci extension pattern completed. It is really hard to miss the opportunity with a move like this. Again, follow the MAGENTA lines on this chart to see the Fibonacci Extension pattern setup.

At this point on the ES chart, the upside price rally has resulted in a 161% (roughly) upside price advance of the previous Fibonacci Extension pattern (last leg). This upside price leg range, 161%, suggests the upside price move should be close to ending soon. There is a possibility that price could advance to levels near 200% of the previous price leg range, but traders would be chasing a 25% further upside advance that may only be a low probability outcome.




Our advice for skilled traders is to pare back existing open long trade positions near these new all-time highs. The price advance appears to have reached levels that suggest the upside advance may be nearing an end point for the US stock markets. After such a big upside price leg, we have to be cautious near these new all-time highs that further price rotation may become a concern.

Oil, on the other hand, could continue to rally because it has only advanced 61% of the last Fibonacci 100% price leg. The global concerns regarding Iran and the US, as well as global economic concerns, could push Oil back up to the $60 to $62 level before reaching a peak.

Over the past 21+ months, we’ve highlighted some of the best tools and techniques we use to find great trading signals. This one technique, the Fibonacci 100% Price Expansion Leg, is just one of the tools we use to find trades and targets for our trade alerts for members.

The more one understands how price works and how the markets operate as a Symphony of price actions, one can find opportunities for great trades almost all the time. Skill and experience make the difference when deciding when to trade and what to trade and that’s what we provide.


We’ve now shown you two different price setups using Fibonacci price theory and the only thing we have to do is wait for a technical price confirmation before finding our entry trade. We’ll see how this plays out over the next few days and weeks. Remember, we are not proposing these as “major price bottoms”. They are “upside pullback trades” (bounces) at this point. A bullish price pullback in a downtrend.




Stock & ETF Trading Signals

June 23, 2019

How to Time Market Tops and Bottoms

On this first full weekend of Summer, we thought we would revisit our June 3, 2019 research post regarding a price pattern we love to trade – the Fibonacci Extension Bounce. This pattern sets up fairly often and the key to understanding this pattern and where these trades present real opportunity is in understanding the price dynamics behind these extensions. There are many instances where a Fibonacci price extension level will fail to promote a price bounce or rebound – and the price will just keep trending higher or lower past the extension level.

You can read our original research post here that clearly shows the bottom and our price targets.

Pay very close attention to the price levels and setups of the charts within that June 3, 2019 post. These setups are based on what we term a “100% Fibonacci Extension” from a previous trend reversal (peak or valley). The concept of this trading pattern is that the initial “impulse” price move sets up the first leg of a move. The retracement price move sets up the entry trigger for the second price leg – the next 100% price leg. The bottom, in this case, of the second 100% price leg sets up the “end of the move” and the potential for a price rotation in the opposite direction (likely resulting in a 38% to 61%+ retracement move).

In both instances of our June 3 calls, Crude Oil and the ES followed through exactly as we predicted.

This first chart of Crude Oil shows how price bottomed near $52 and has recently advanced to levels near $58 after reaching the 100% Fibonacci extension levels. As this move higher extends to levels near the ORANGE moving average line on this chart and/or beyond the $58 to $59 target level we originally drew on our June 3rd charts, we would consider the upside price move “completed” based on our expectations. Yes, these types of trend could extend even further beyond our expectations. But our objective, as skilled traders, is to target and profit from the highest probability objectives – which was the move from $52 to near current price levels.

Follow the MAGENTA lines on these charts to see the Fibonacci Extension Pattern Setup. They are not hard to see on the charts when your eyes are trained to identify them.




This ES Daily chart shows the incredible +230 point rally that took place after our June 3 research post and after the Fibonacci extension pattern completed. It is really hard to miss the opportunity with a move like this. Again, follow the MAGENTA lines on this chart to see the Fibonacci Extension pattern setup.

At this point on the ES chart, the upside price rally has resulted in a 161% (roughly) upside price advance of the previous Fibonacci Extension pattern (last leg). This upside price leg range, 161%, suggests the upside price move should be close to ending soon. There is a possibility that price could advance to levels near 200% of the previous price leg range, but traders would be chasing a 25% further upside advance that may only be a low probability outcome.




Our advice for skilled traders is to pare back existing open long trade positions near these new all-time highs. The price advance appears to have reached levels that suggest the upside advance may be nearing an end point for the US stock markets. After such a big upside price leg, we have to be cautious near these new all-time highs that further price rotation may become a concern.

Oil, on the other hand, could continue to rally because it has only advanced 61% of the last Fibonacci 100% price leg. The global concerns regarding Iran and the US, as well as global economic concerns, could push Oil back up to the $60 to $62 level before reaching a peak.

Over the past 21+ months, we’ve highlighted some of the best tools and techniques we use to find great trading signals. This one technique, the Fibonacci 100% Price Expansion Leg, is just one of the tools we use to find trades and targets for our trade alerts for members.

The more one understands how price works and how the markets operate as a Symphony of price actions, one can find opportunities for great trades almost all the time. Skill and experience make the difference when deciding when to trade and what to trade and that’s what we provide.


We’ve now shown you two different price setups using Fibonacci price theory and the only thing we have to do is wait for a technical price confirmation before finding our entry trade. We’ll see how this plays out over the next few days and weeks. Remember, we are not proposing these as “major price bottoms”. They are “upside pullback trades” (bounces) at this point. A bullish price pullback in a downtrend.




Stock & ETF Trading Signals

July 20, 2018

Bitcoin Rallies to Upper Channel – What Next?

Even we were concerned with Bitcoin briefly traded below $6k in late June. Yet, the recent upside price move was incredibly quick and the price of Bitcoin ran right up to our upper price channel. We believe this will become a new price peak over the next few days/weeks where the price of Bitcoin should continue to drop from these levels near $7500. We know there are many Bitcoin investors that want to hear us state that it should continue to push higher, but there are other factors at play here that may limit this movement.

The price channels that are currently constraining the price of Bitcoin originate back in February and March of 2018. The low and high price rotation within these months start the points of interest for our research team. From these points, we have continued to identify key price levels that appear to contain breakouts.

You can see from the chart below, the upper BLUE channel line is our downward sloping price channel that is acting like an upper ceiling for the price. Additionally, you can see our “drawn Red and Green arrows” showing what we believed Bitcoin would potentially do over the next few months. We believed that Bitcoin, as it traded lower, towards $6k, may find support and rally (based on our time/price cycles) towards a peak near July 16 (showing as the end of the Green Arrow). From this point, we believe the price of Bitcoin will trail off, heading lower, with the intent to retest channel support near $5700 if the price cannot break through and hold above the blue upper channel.


This longer term daily Bitcoin chart shows a larger picture of our analysis work. You can clearly see the channels that are constraining price at the moment – the BLUE support channel and the RED resistance channel. The most recent lows established a new lower price point for the Blue channel – which indicated a downward sloping pennant formation is in place.



There are two things we want to caution Bitcoin investors and traders about. First, the rotation that we are expecting to complete this pennant formation could happen very quickly within a fairly tight range ($7400 to $5700). For traders, this is an excellent range for some quick profits. For investors, this could create some stress as price rotates.

Second, by our estimates, at least one more low price rotation is required before any real breakout will be attempted. If our analysis is correct, this current price peak will end with prices falling back below $6k, forming another “lower bottom” and rallying again to near the upper price channel (near $6700 or so) before trailing off for the last time – nearing the apex of the pennant formation. We believe the current outcome of this price setup will be a low price breakout, forming a potential wave 5 that should end near or below $5500. After that bottom is reached, we should be looking for a new bottom formation setting up a new advancement leg higher.

Could our analysis change, of course, it could depending on what price action shows us. Right now, this pennant formation and the wave counts are driving our analysis. The Time/price cycle analysis helps us to determine when and where price target/peaks/troughs may happen, but they are not set in stone. If you are a trader and are long Bitcoin, this may be the highest price you will see over the next few months.

 If you are an investor and think this is the start of a bigger move higher – we don’t agree with you. We believe we are very close to the final leg lower that should form the new price bottom – at least for a while. Once this bottom forms, we’ll be able to provide a better understanding of what we believe will happen in the future. For right now, our target low for the bottom is $4400 on or near August 20, 2018. We’ll see how it plays out.

We keep a close eye using our proprietary ADL Fibonacci and ADL Cycle forecasting systems using the Bitcoin investment trust which trades like a stock/ETF, the symbol is: GBTC.

If you want to learn how we can help you stay ahead of these global market moves and help you plan for and execute greater trades, please visit The Technical Traders site to learn how we assist you. We offer comprehensive research, analysis, daily video, trading signals and much more to our valued subscribers. We also offer access to our specialized proprietary price modeling systems that have proven to be timely and accurate.



Stock & ETF Trading Signals

July 20, 2018

Bitcoin Rallies to Upper Channel – What Next?

Even we were concerned with Bitcoin briefly traded below $6k in late June. Yet, the recent upside price move was incredibly quick and the price of Bitcoin ran right up to our upper price channel. We believe this will become a new price peak over the next few days/weeks where the price of Bitcoin should continue to drop from these levels near $7500. We know there are many Bitcoin investors that want to hear us state that it should continue to push higher, but there are other factors at play here that may limit this movement.

The price channels that are currently constraining the price of Bitcoin originate back in February and March of 2018. The low and high price rotation within these months start the points of interest for our research team. From these points, we have continued to identify key price levels that appear to contain breakouts.

You can see from the chart below, the upper BLUE channel line is our downward sloping price channel that is acting like an upper ceiling for the price. Additionally, you can see our “drawn Red and Green arrows” showing what we believed Bitcoin would potentially do over the next few months. We believed that Bitcoin, as it traded lower, towards $6k, may find support and rally (based on our time/price cycles) towards a peak near July 16 (showing as the end of the Green Arrow). From this point, we believe the price of Bitcoin will trail off, heading lower, with the intent to retest channel support near $5700 if the price cannot break through and hold above the blue upper channel.


This longer term daily Bitcoin chart shows a larger picture of our analysis work. You can clearly see the channels that are constraining price at the moment – the BLUE support channel and the RED resistance channel. The most recent lows established a new lower price point for the Blue channel – which indicated a downward sloping pennant formation is in place.



There are two things we want to caution Bitcoin investors and traders about. First, the rotation that we are expecting to complete this pennant formation could happen very quickly within a fairly tight range ($7400 to $5700). For traders, this is an excellent range for some quick profits. For investors, this could create some stress as price rotates.

Second, by our estimates, at least one more low price rotation is required before any real breakout will be attempted. If our analysis is correct, this current price peak will end with prices falling back below $6k, forming another “lower bottom” and rallying again to near the upper price channel (near $6700 or so) before trailing off for the last time – nearing the apex of the pennant formation. We believe the current outcome of this price setup will be a low price breakout, forming a potential wave 5 that should end near or below $5500. After that bottom is reached, we should be looking for a new bottom formation setting up a new advancement leg higher.

Could our analysis change, of course, it could depending on what price action shows us. Right now, this pennant formation and the wave counts are driving our analysis. The Time/price cycle analysis helps us to determine when and where price target/peaks/troughs may happen, but they are not set in stone. If you are a trader and are long Bitcoin, this may be the highest price you will see over the next few months.

 If you are an investor and think this is the start of a bigger move higher – we don’t agree with you. We believe we are very close to the final leg lower that should form the new price bottom – at least for a while. Once this bottom forms, we’ll be able to provide a better understanding of what we believe will happen in the future. For right now, our target low for the bottom is $4400 on or near August 20, 2018. We’ll see how it plays out.

We keep a close eye using our proprietary ADL Fibonacci and ADL Cycle forecasting systems using the Bitcoin investment trust which trades like a stock/ETF, the symbol is: GBTC.

If you want to learn how we can help you stay ahead of these global market moves and help you plan for and execute greater trades, please visit The Technical Traders site to learn how we assist you. We offer comprehensive research, analysis, daily video, trading signals and much more to our valued subscribers. We also offer access to our specialized proprietary price modeling systems that have proven to be timely and accurate.



Stock & ETF Trading Signals

July 17, 2018

Let’s Look at the Three Issues That Might Drive Crude Oil Lower

Crude Oil has been a major play for some traders over the past few months. With price, rotation ranges near $5~$7 and upside pressure driving a price assent from below $45 to nearly $75 peaks. This upside price move has been tremendous.

Over the past few weeks, many things have changed in the fundamentals of the Oil market. Supply continues to outpace demand, trade tariffs and slowing global economies are now starting to become real concerns, foreign suppliers have continued to increase production, US Dollar continues to strengthen and social/political unrest is starting to become more evident in many foreign nations.

In fact, we felt so strongly that big downside move in crude oil was about to happen we posted a warning to oil traders two days before the drop started.

When we consider what could happen with oil in the future with regards to over-supply and the potential for constricting global markets, we have to understand that support will likely be identified at levels that are much lower than current price – possibly below $60. Yet, at the same time, we must understand that disruptions in supply and/or regional chaos, such as war or political turmoil, in specific regions could cause the price of oil to skyrocket as these disruptions continue.

RIGHT NOW, THREE KEY ISSUES ARE DRIVING OIL LOWER

* A stronger US Dollar is making it more expensive for foreign nations to purchase Oil on the open market as well as moving capital away from foreign local investments and migrating capital into the US Equities markets

* Supply issues (the increased capacity for greater supply) is resulting in a glut of oil available on the open market when we have dozens of supply ships still waiting to offload throughout the world. In other words, we have an over-supply of oil at the moment.

* A lack of any urgency or crisis event to support Oil above $65 at the moment. Given the slow, but consistent, transition towards cleaner more energy efficient vehicles and energy as well as the lack of any real conflict or crisis event to disrupt supply, it appears there is no real support for Oil above $65 – at least so far.

DAILY CRUDE LIGHT CHART

This Daily Crude Light chart shows a simple price channel that correlates recent price lows into a channel and shows a Fibonacci Retracement range for recent price rotations. We can see that the price of Crude is holding just above the 50% retracement level right now and any breach below $70 would be a very strong downside price breakout. Should price drop below $68, we could see a selloff to below $64 as price may attempt to establish a new “price low” to the downside.



MONTHLY CRUDE CHART

This Monthly Crude chart below shows us where we believe support and resistance price zones are located. You can see from the highlighted areas that resistance is located between $70~86 and support is located between $44~56 on this longer-term monthly chart. You can also see that the Fibonacci retracement levels for the current upside move are currently nearing 55~57% (above the 50% level and nearing the 61.8% level). The combination factor that Crude has recently rotated lower, near the upper price channel, within the resistance zone, above 50% and nearing 61.8% Fibonacci level, strongly suggests that we could see a stronger downside price swing in the near future. Until $60 is breached, consider this move simple rotation. Once $60 is breached to the downside, then consider this a deeper downside price move.



With so many factors in play throughout the world, one has to be aware that Crude Oil is a commodity that correlates to expected economic activities, global crisis events, and supply/demand factors. Right now, an almost perfect storm is setting up for Oil to continue to fall to new lows which will likely push Crude below $60 ppb (eventually) and may push it down to near $55 ppb (our upper support zone). We caution traders/investors through – any crisis news item, war or other disruption in supply could dramatically alter the factor that makes up this price prediction. Right now, without any of these issues, we see Oil continuing to fall towards the $60 price level.

Also, visit The Technical Traders Free Market Research to read all of our most recent free research posts. We believe you’ll quickly see the value in what we provide our members and our visitors by reading and understanding how we have continued to stay ahead of these market moves for months.

53 years experience in researching and trading makes analyzing the complex and ever changing financial markets a natural process. We have a simple and highly effective way to provide our customers with the most convenient, accurate, and timely market forecasts available today. Our stock and ETF trading alerts are readily available through our exclusive membership service via email and SMS text. Our newsletter, Technical Trading Mastery book, and 3 Hour Trading Video Course are designed for both traders and investors. Also, some of our strategies have been fully automated for the ultimate trading experience.

Get our advanced research and market reporting, Daily market videos, detailed trading signals and join the hundreds of other traders that follow our research every day and profit.

Chris Vermeulen
The Technical Traders Ltd.



Stock & ETF Trading Signals

July 17, 2018

Let’s Look at the Three Issues That Might Drive Crude Oil Lower

Crude Oil has been a major play for some traders over the past few months. With price, rotation ranges near $5~$7 and upside pressure driving a price assent from below $45 to nearly $75 peaks. This upside price move has been tremendous.

Over the past few weeks, many things have changed in the fundamentals of the Oil market. Supply continues to outpace demand, trade tariffs and slowing global economies are now starting to become real concerns, foreign suppliers have continued to increase production, US Dollar continues to strengthen and social/political unrest is starting to become more evident in many foreign nations.

In fact, we felt so strongly that big downside move in crude oil was about to happen we posted a warning to oil traders two days before the drop started.

When we consider what could happen with oil in the future with regards to over-supply and the potential for constricting global markets, we have to understand that support will likely be identified at levels that are much lower than current price – possibly below $60. Yet, at the same time, we must understand that disruptions in supply and/or regional chaos, such as war or political turmoil, in specific regions could cause the price of oil to skyrocket as these disruptions continue.

RIGHT NOW, THREE KEY ISSUES ARE DRIVING OIL LOWER

* A stronger US Dollar is making it more expensive for foreign nations to purchase Oil on the open market as well as moving capital away from foreign local investments and migrating capital into the US Equities markets

* Supply issues (the increased capacity for greater supply) is resulting in a glut of oil available on the open market when we have dozens of supply ships still waiting to offload throughout the world. In other words, we have an over-supply of oil at the moment.

* A lack of any urgency or crisis event to support Oil above $65 at the moment. Given the slow, but consistent, transition towards cleaner more energy efficient vehicles and energy as well as the lack of any real conflict or crisis event to disrupt supply, it appears there is no real support for Oil above $65 – at least so far.

DAILY CRUDE LIGHT CHART

This Daily Crude Light chart shows a simple price channel that correlates recent price lows into a channel and shows a Fibonacci Retracement range for recent price rotations. We can see that the price of Crude is holding just above the 50% retracement level right now and any breach below $70 would be a very strong downside price breakout. Should price drop below $68, we could see a selloff to below $64 as price may attempt to establish a new “price low” to the downside.



MONTHLY CRUDE CHART

This Monthly Crude chart below shows us where we believe support and resistance price zones are located. You can see from the highlighted areas that resistance is located between $70~86 and support is located between $44~56 on this longer-term monthly chart. You can also see that the Fibonacci retracement levels for the current upside move are currently nearing 55~57% (above the 50% level and nearing the 61.8% level). The combination factor that Crude has recently rotated lower, near the upper price channel, within the resistance zone, above 50% and nearing 61.8% Fibonacci level, strongly suggests that we could see a stronger downside price swing in the near future. Until $60 is breached, consider this move simple rotation. Once $60 is breached to the downside, then consider this a deeper downside price move.



With so many factors in play throughout the world, one has to be aware that Crude Oil is a commodity that correlates to expected economic activities, global crisis events, and supply/demand factors. Right now, an almost perfect storm is setting up for Oil to continue to fall to new lows which will likely push Crude below $60 ppb (eventually) and may push it down to near $55 ppb (our upper support zone). We caution traders/investors through – any crisis news item, war or other disruption in supply could dramatically alter the factor that makes up this price prediction. Right now, without any of these issues, we see Oil continuing to fall towards the $60 price level.

Also, visit The Technical Traders Free Market Research to read all of our most recent free research posts. We believe you’ll quickly see the value in what we provide our members and our visitors by reading and understanding how we have continued to stay ahead of these market moves for months.

53 years experience in researching and trading makes analyzing the complex and ever changing financial markets a natural process. We have a simple and highly effective way to provide our customers with the most convenient, accurate, and timely market forecasts available today. Our stock and ETF trading alerts are readily available through our exclusive membership service via email and SMS text. Our newsletter, Technical Trading Mastery book, and 3 Hour Trading Video Course are designed for both traders and investors. Also, some of our strategies have been fully automated for the ultimate trading experience.

Get our advanced research and market reporting, Daily market videos, detailed trading signals and join the hundreds of other traders that follow our research every day and profit.

Chris Vermeulen
The Technical Traders Ltd.





July 5, 2018

Crude Oil and Gas ETFs are Having a Good 2018

Thus far in 2018, the oil and gas industry has been booming. Rig counts in the US are up, prices at the pump are up, and the oil and gas ETFs tracking the sector are up by a lot.

Investors who have been following the industry over the past year could have made some serious money as a few of the leveraged ETFs are up 238% or more. The Velocity Shares 3X Long Crude Oil ETN (UWT) is up 247% over the last 12 months and is up more than 70% year to date. The UBS ETRACS ProShares Daily 3X Long Crude ETN (WTIU) has risen 240% over the last year and 64% year to date. Finally, the Proshares UltraPro 3X Crude Oil ETF (OILU) is up 238% over the last 12 months and 63% year to date.

But, perhaps your less risky and don’t like investing in the leveraged ETFs? Well, you still could have done well as the United States Brent Oil Fund LP (BNO) is up 71% over the last year and 19.9% since the start of 2018. Or perhaps you went with the ProShares K-1 Free Crude Oil Strategy ETF (OILK) which is up 62% in the past 12 months and 23% year to date. Or either the iPath Series B S&P GSCI Crude Oil ETN (OILB) or the United States Oil Fund LP (USO) which are both up more than 61% over the last year and 23% year to date.

There have been some reasons why the industry has been on a tear over the last, and many of that reason don’t show signs of changing in the short term. OPEC is committed to increasing the price of oil (despite its recent modest increase in production), smaller U.S. outfits still need slightly higher prices before they can add additional rigs and become profitable, the economy appears to be healthy and growing, US consumers have not yet begun to fell the “pain at the pump” again really.

While recent data and projections from the U.S. Energy Information Administration don’t indicate massive price increases for oil and gas shortly, they are predicting increases. Speaking of the government, despite President Trump's promises, he has yet been able to change the shift we saw occur during the later Obama years when electric plants switched to natural gas from coal. This is something that really could change the oil and gas landscape in coming years if natural begin to climb naturally. Depending on which resource, oil or natural gas is more profitable, U.S. producers could flip-flop from one to another, causing the prices of both to climb. But, this would be something to watch for in a much longer time horizon than what we are discussing today.

Some investors may feel the run in oil and gas has already taken place and that greener pastures should be explored, as opposed to trying to get on a moving train. But, if the economic reasons for the price increases haven’t changed, then prices should theoretically continue to climb until something else changes.

Furthermore, while OPEC and Russia both talk about higher output, the fact of the matter is both parties want the price of oil to either remain where it is or increase. Most of the countries in OPEC need Oil and Gas money in order to run their governments, while it is clear to most, that some high ranking Russian government officials have personal interests in the industry.

Furthermore, the argument could be made that both Russia and OPEC would rather see prices stay flat as opposed to climbing back to $100 a barrel because current prices keep some of the U.S. producers out of business and this gives Russia and OPEC more control on global production and price stability.

But, regardless of why Russia and OPEC may want to prices getting out of control, they still want to maintain current prices, giving oil and gas a reasonably stable price floor.

Buying different oil and gas ETFs, ETNs or other funds may not produce the huge returns we have seen in the past 12 or 7 months, but they could still bear fruit worth eating. The leveraged investments appear to be extremely risky at this time, even though I don’t see prices falling, but simply because of the daily costs associated with these funds. Buying a solid group of oil and gas ETFs made up of both the companies operating in the industry and the commodities themselves could pay healthy dividends in the coming year.

Matt Thalman
INO.com Contributor - ETFs







July 5, 2018

Crude Oil and Gas ETFs are Having a Good 2018

Thus far in 2018, the oil and gas industry has been booming. Rig counts in the US are up, prices at the pump are up, and the oil and gas ETFs tracking the sector are up by a lot.

Investors who have been following the industry over the past year could have made some serious money as a few of the leveraged ETFs are up 238% or more. The Velocity Shares 3X Long Crude Oil ETN (UWT) is up 247% over the last 12 months and is up more than 70% year to date. The UBS ETRACS ProShares Daily 3X Long Crude ETN (WTIU) has risen 240% over the last year and 64% year to date. Finally, the Proshares UltraPro 3X Crude Oil ETF (OILU) is up 238% over the last 12 months and 63% year to date.

But, perhaps your less risky and don’t like investing in the leveraged ETFs? Well, you still could have done well as the United States Brent Oil Fund LP (BNO) is up 71% over the last year and 19.9% since the start of 2018. Or perhaps you went with the ProShares K-1 Free Crude Oil Strategy ETF (OILK) which is up 62% in the past 12 months and 23% year to date. Or either the iPath Series B S&P GSCI Crude Oil ETN (OILB) or the United States Oil Fund LP (USO) which are both up more than 61% over the last year and 23% year to date.

There have been some reasons why the industry has been on a tear over the last, and many of that reason don’t show signs of changing in the short term. OPEC is committed to increasing the price of oil (despite its recent modest increase in production), smaller U.S. outfits still need slightly higher prices before they can add additional rigs and become profitable, the economy appears to be healthy and growing, US consumers have not yet begun to fell the “pain at the pump” again really.

While recent data and projections from the U.S. Energy Information Administration don’t indicate massive price increases for oil and gas shortly, they are predicting increases. Speaking of the government, despite President Trump's promises, he has yet been able to change the shift we saw occur during the later Obama years when electric plants switched to natural gas from coal. This is something that really could change the oil and gas landscape in coming years if natural begin to climb naturally. Depending on which resource, oil or natural gas is more profitable, U.S. producers could flip-flop from one to another, causing the prices of both to climb. But, this would be something to watch for in a much longer time horizon than what we are discussing today.

Some investors may feel the run in oil and gas has already taken place and that greener pastures should be explored, as opposed to trying to get on a moving train. But, if the economic reasons for the price increases haven’t changed, then prices should theoretically continue to climb until something else changes.

Furthermore, while OPEC and Russia both talk about higher output, the fact of the matter is both parties want the price of oil to either remain where it is or increase. Most of the countries in OPEC need Oil and Gas money in order to run their governments, while it is clear to most, that some high ranking Russian government officials have personal interests in the industry.

Furthermore, the argument could be made that both Russia and OPEC would rather see prices stay flat as opposed to climbing back to $100 a barrel because current prices keep some of the U.S. producers out of business and this gives Russia and OPEC more control on global production and price stability.

But, regardless of why Russia and OPEC may want to prices getting out of control, they still want to maintain current prices, giving oil and gas a reasonably stable price floor.

Buying different oil and gas ETFs, ETNs or other funds may not produce the huge returns we have seen in the past 12 or 7 months, but they could still bear fruit worth eating. The leveraged investments appear to be extremely risky at this time, even though I don’t see prices falling, but simply because of the daily costs associated with these funds. Buying a solid group of oil and gas ETFs made up of both the companies operating in the industry and the commodities themselves could pay healthy dividends in the coming year.

Matt Thalman
INO.com Contributor - ETFs







June 26, 2018

Why Gold Miners Should Rally as U.S. Equities Fall on Fear

The US Equities markets rotated over 1.35% lower on Monday, June 25, after a very eventful weekend full of news and global political concerns. Much of this fear results from unknowns resulting from Europe, Asia, China, Mexico and the US. Currently, there are so many “contagion factors” at play, we don’t know how all of it will eventually play out in the long run.

Europe is in the midst of a moderate political revolt regarding refugee/immigration issues/costs and political turmoil originating from the European Union leadership. How they resolve these issues will likely be counter to the populist demands from the people of Europe.

Asia is in the midst of a political and economic cycle rotation. Malaysia has recently elected Prime Minister Dr. Mahathir Mohamad, the 92 year old previous prime minister (1981-2003) as a populist revolt against the Najib Razak administration. In the process, Mahathir has opened new and old corruption and legal issues while attempting to clean up the corruption and nepotism that has run rampant in Malaysia. Most recently, Mahathir has begun to question the established relationship with Singapore and the high speed rail system that was proposed to link the two countries.

China is experiencing a host of issues at the moment. Trade concerns, capital market concerns, corporate debt concerns and an overall economic downturn cycle that started near the beginning of 2018. What will it take to push China over the edge in terms of a credit/consumer market crash is anyone’s guess? Our assumption is that continued inward and outward pressures will not abate quickly – so more unknowns exist.

Mexico will have new Presidential elections on July 1, 2018. What hangs in the balance of this election cycle is just about everything in terms of North American economic cooperation and future success. It is being reported that a populist “anti-neoliberal” movement is well underway in Mexico and the newly elected leader may begin a broader pushback against President Trump regarding NAFTA, immigration, US corporations operating in Mexico and more. We won’t know the full outcome of this election till well after July 2018.

Meanwhile, back in the USA, our political leaders in Congress and the House of Representatives seem hell bent on opposing everything President Trump and many Americans seem to want – clean up the mess in our government and get a handle on the pressing issues before us. The U.S. has a growing and robust economy. The last thing anyone wants right now is anything to disrupt this growth. Yet, it seems the political divide in the U.S. is so strong that it may take some crisis event to push any resolution forward.

What does this mean for investors and traders? Fear typically appears in one place before it appears anywhere else – the Metals markets (Gold, Silver, Platinum, and Palladium). This Daily Gold Chart shows our predictive cycle analysis pointing to a near term bottom formation as well as a strong likelihood of immediate upside price action. These cycles do not represent price levels. So the cycle peak does not represent where price will go – it simply indicates future cycle trends and direction.

Given this information, it is very likely that Gold will recover to near 1320 within the next couple weeks and possibly push higher on global concerns. For traders, this means we are sitting near an ultimate bottom in the metals and this could be an excellent buying opportunity.



The Gold Miners ETF shows a similar cycle pattern but notice how prices in the Miners ETF have diverged from the Gold chart, above, by not resorting to a new price low as deep as seen above. This could be interpreted as the Gold market reacting to global concerns in an exaggerated way while the miners ETF is showing a more muted reaction. Additionally, notice how the ADL cycle analysis is pointing to similar price peaks in the future with near term bottoms forming. This is key to understanding what we should be expecting over the next few weeks in Gold.



Our interpretation is that the global fear will manifest as a renewed upside trend in Gold and Gold Miners over the next few weeks with the potential for a 5 to 8% rally in Gold. The long term upside is incredible for these trades but that is if you look years into the future.

As these fear components and unknowns continue to evolve, the metals markets should find support and push higher as fear continues to manifest and global markets continue to weaken.

As we have been stating since the beginning of this year, 2018 is setting up to be a trader’s dream. Bigger volatility. Bigger swings. Bigger profits if you are on the right side of these moves. Our proprietary predictive modeling systems and price analysis tools help us to stay ahead of the markets.

We help our members understand the risks and navigate the future trends by issuing research posts, providing Daily video analysis complete with cycle projections and by delivering clear trading signals that assist all of our members in finding profits each year. We are showing you one of our proprietary tools right now, our ADL Predictive Cycle tool and what we believe will be the start of a potential upside move in the metals markets.

 Get ready for some great trading over the next few months!





Stock & ETF Trading Signals

June 26, 2018

Why Gold Miners Should Rally as U.S. Equities Fall on Fear

The US Equities markets rotated over 1.35% lower on Monday, June 25, after a very eventful weekend full of news and global political concerns. Much of this fear results from unknowns resulting from Europe, Asia, China, Mexico and the US. Currently, there are so many “contagion factors” at play, we don’t know how all of it will eventually play out in the long run.

Europe is in the midst of a moderate political revolt regarding refugee/immigration issues/costs and political turmoil originating from the European Union leadership. How they resolve these issues will likely be counter to the populist demands from the people of Europe.

Asia is in the midst of a political and economic cycle rotation. Malaysia has recently elected Prime Minister Dr. Mahathir Mohamad, the 92 year old previous prime minister (1981-2003) as a populist revolt against the Najib Razak administration. In the process, Mahathir has opened new and old corruption and legal issues while attempting to clean up the corruption and nepotism that has run rampant in Malaysia. Most recently, Mahathir has begun to question the established relationship with Singapore and the high speed rail system that was proposed to link the two countries.

China is experiencing a host of issues at the moment. Trade concerns, capital market concerns, corporate debt concerns and an overall economic downturn cycle that started near the beginning of 2018. What will it take to push China over the edge in terms of a credit/consumer market crash is anyone’s guess? Our assumption is that continued inward and outward pressures will not abate quickly – so more unknowns exist.

Mexico will have new Presidential elections on July 1, 2018. What hangs in the balance of this election cycle is just about everything in terms of North American economic cooperation and future success. It is being reported that a populist “anti-neoliberal” movement is well underway in Mexico and the newly elected leader may begin a broader pushback against President Trump regarding NAFTA, immigration, US corporations operating in Mexico and more. We won’t know the full outcome of this election till well after July 2018.

Meanwhile, back in the USA, our political leaders in Congress and the House of Representatives seem hell bent on opposing everything President Trump and many Americans seem to want – clean up the mess in our government and get a handle on the pressing issues before us. The U.S. has a growing and robust economy. The last thing anyone wants right now is anything to disrupt this growth. Yet, it seems the political divide in the U.S. is so strong that it may take some crisis event to push any resolution forward.

What does this mean for investors and traders? Fear typically appears in one place before it appears anywhere else – the Metals markets (Gold, Silver, Platinum, and Palladium). This Daily Gold Chart shows our predictive cycle analysis pointing to a near term bottom formation as well as a strong likelihood of immediate upside price action. These cycles do not represent price levels. So the cycle peak does not represent where price will go – it simply indicates future cycle trends and direction.

Given this information, it is very likely that Gold will recover to near 1320 within the next couple weeks and possibly push higher on global concerns. For traders, this means we are sitting near an ultimate bottom in the metals and this could be an excellent buying opportunity.



The Gold Miners ETF shows a similar cycle pattern but notice how prices in the Miners ETF have diverged from the Gold chart, above, by not resorting to a new price low as deep as seen above. This could be interpreted as the Gold market reacting to global concerns in an exaggerated way while the miners ETF is showing a more muted reaction. Additionally, notice how the ADL cycle analysis is pointing to similar price peaks in the future with near term bottoms forming. This is key to understanding what we should be expecting over the next few weeks in Gold.



Our interpretation is that the global fear will manifest as a renewed upside trend in Gold and Gold Miners over the next few weeks with the potential for a 5 to 8% rally in Gold. The long term upside is incredible for these trades but that is if you look years into the future.

As these fear components and unknowns continue to evolve, the metals markets should find support and push higher as fear continues to manifest and global markets continue to weaken.

As we have been stating since the beginning of this year, 2018 is setting up to be a trader’s dream. Bigger volatility. Bigger swings. Bigger profits if you are on the right side of these moves. Our proprietary predictive modeling systems and price analysis tools help us to stay ahead of the markets.

We help our members understand the risks and navigate the future trends by issuing research posts, providing Daily video analysis complete with cycle projections and by delivering clear trading signals that assist all of our members in finding profits each year. We are showing you one of our proprietary tools right now, our ADL Predictive Cycle tool and what we believe will be the start of a potential upside move in the metals markets.

 Get ready for some great trading over the next few months!





Stock & ETF Trading Signals